Bears Need a Top Soon, Good Place to Occur Now

The bullish triangle I called out in the last post on the 5min chart sure played out quite well, but much better, further and longer than expected.

Yesterday's rally was quite fierce and it made almost a straight line up.  Bear market rallies tend to be quite sharp, but this one is also very deep and can cause some problems to the bearish count if it gets above 1996.25, which is the wave ((i)) low.  The market closed right at wave ((iii)) 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1951.

So, with the obvious follow-through to yesterday's sharp rally today complete, and a nice retracement level hit just shy of the wave ((i)) invalidation level, the bears could see a good opportunity to hit the market hard again to the downside either Friday or Monday.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Possibly in Short Term Bullish Triangle

The ES appears to be forming a short term bullish triangle that should result in a narrowing range of price activity probably the rest of the day before shooting higher in a terminal thrust towards the 1945 level.  Thrusts are terminal moves, so once complete, it should immediately retrace to at least the 1939 area.  To support the triangle outlook, you can also see volume waning as the triangle progresses.  My best guess is that overnight, or early in the morning for the US session, a news event will trigger the triangle's wave E and then a sharp move upward for the thrust will occur.  There is not much heavy news to cause this action, but that doesn't mean it won't occur, as many unforeseen events end up moving the markets sharply anyway.

For the longer term, I am still bearish as you can see from my previous post.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.