Friday, March 11, 2016
Elliott Wave Index Futures
The decline went a little further than I anticipated and created overlap of wave (i). Therefore, I cannot label that decline a wave (iv) since 4th waves cannot overlap with the 1st waves at the same degree except in an ending diagonal. This wave cannot be an ending diagonal though, because it's within a larger wave ((iii)), and ending diagonals can only occur in 5th and C waves.
So, a recount is in order (see attached chart). The series of higher highs and higher lows continues, so I remain bullish the stock market. Adjusting the wave count to current price action leaves us with a much more bullish outlook as wave (iii) is now subdividing further. Instead of the recent decline being a wave (iv) and therefore nearing the end of wave ((iii)), I now count the recent decline as a smaller degree wave ii. So wave ((iii)) will be much longer under this count. This may be tough follow when reading, but if you look at the chart, and compare it to my previous chart (click here), you'll see my point illustrated rather clearly.
I did some ratio analysis to try and determine the projected price of waves iii and (iii). As you can see, the Fibo extension levels that are a good stopping point for wave iii are between 2068 and 2078, From there, it's likely the market will continue on higher to finish wave ((iii)) at around 2100. And this fits well with the my overall analysis over the last few weeks that a meaningful correction in the stock market probably won't occur until 2100 (S&P futures) is reached.
So there is plenty of evidence that the market will continue higher in the coming weeks. A break below 1920.75 would alter that view.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Elliott Wave Stock Trading - UNG on Watchlist
The US natural gas ETF (UNG), could be a large 4th wave which I count as a bullish C wave in a correction. Also note the large amount of volume entering this market the couple months as it appears to be trying to form a bottom. I project that price will get to $7.15-$7.30 if price moves to confirm my proprietary indicators' bullish signal. A decent close higher tomorrow should trigger the signal and I will attempt to get long a call spread of values are desirable.
Elliott Wave Forex Trading - EURAUD Trade Wrap-up
The Aussie was over bought in 3 different currency pairs starting early this week, and the wave count and my proprietary indicators signaled a reversal was coming. Waiting for a break above the channel proved wise last night because if I were to have just entered at the market last night the final sharp dip lower would have stopped me out and I would have missed the trade. After two failed trades I finally hit it with +130 pip profit, when averaging my entries.
PREVIOUS POST CLOSING POSITION:
I'm closing half position and moving profit target down to 1.4900 and stop loss up to 1.4760 on remaining position.
That was a nice quick gain, let's see if this pair can continue to the final target.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK. Elliott Wave Forex Trading - EURAUD Trade
I'm closing half position and moving profit target down to 1.4900 and stop loss up to 1.4760 on remaining position.
That was a nice quick gain, let's see if this pair can continue to the final target.
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Elliott Wave Forex Trading - EURAUD Trade
I love getting punished by the markets so I'm attempting another long on the EURAUD. This time, I will wait for strength to enter, and that strength will be on a move above 1.4730, which will confirm a buy signal on my proprietary indicators. I will enter half long there, and then I want to add another half long on a break above the upper channel line at 1.4780. Here's my trade:
1/2 position buy stop at 1.4730
1/2 position buy stop at 1.4780
Stop loss at 1.4580
Profit target at 1.4920
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Elliott Wave Index Futures
Not much new to add on the S&P. The market is churning sideways in a 4th wave and should resume its uptrend soon in what should be an extended 5th wave. Using wave relationships, a logical place for wave ((iii)) to end is at the wave ((i)) Fibonacci 138% extension level at 2082.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Elliott Wave Stock Trading - Chegg on Watchlist
The Chegg wave count and technical setup is appealing from a bullish perspective. I am simply waiting for bullish confirmation to get long a call option or call spread.
On a sour note, my gut was right in knowing I would regret re-entering the EURAUD trade as I was stopped out last night for a loss of 113 pips.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Elliott Wave Forex Trading - EURAUD Trade
I'm probably going to regret this but the setup is too appealing. The wave count suggests a sustained move higher and there is an inverse head shoulders bottom that may have formed. So I'm jumping back in long. Here is the trade:
Long now at 1.4800
Stop Loss at 1.4690
Profit Target at 1.4980
Elliott Wave Forex Trading - USDCAD Trade Update
Closing the remainder of this position. This price action looks like an ending diagonal which means a top and sharp reversal is coming soon. It's not worth risking that for a mere 25 more pips.
USDCAD trade made a total of 104 pips.
Elliott Wave Forex Trading - USDCAD Trade Update
The USDCAD wasted no time following my analysis and projection for higher levels this morning allowing me to close half the position at about a 70 pip profit and move my stop to break even. As the wave count suggests, the pair appears to still have higher to go. I'm looking at taking profits at the 3rd wave extreme I'm projecting at around the 1.618 Fibo extension level of wave ((i)) at 1.3460.
I'm gonna tighten the sandwich on this trade and move the:
Stop Loss to 1.3365
Profit Target to 1.3445
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Elliott Wave Forex Trading
EURAUD hit my adjusted stop for an 89 pip loss. I still like this pair long but will look for a better time to enter.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Elliott Wave Index Futures
I reworked the count a little bit to make it fit better with the degree of trend most likely playing out. I am counting the pullback today as a small wave (ii) correction which should be reaching an end soon. Once that is complete, the market's strong upward move should continue.
Elliott Wave Forex Trading
Moving SL on EURAUD to 1.4745
I don't like the struggle this pair is going through to hold gains so I want to aggressively reduce risk at every opportunity.
I don't like the struggle this pair is going through to hold gains so I want to aggressively reduce risk at every opportunity.
EURAUD Update
The EURAUD is far off the level I entered and so on the surface it appears the trade is failing. But when counting the waves, it actually looks like a very successful trade as last night it completed a beautiful impulsive rally, and the current pullback is just a wave ii correction. I expect the pair to find its footing in the American session and resume its uptrend soon.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Going Long USDCAD
My proprietary indicators show that the USDCAD may be coming back to life and a sharp rally is near. I'm going to try getting long the pair with the following setup:
Long now at 1.3321
Profit target is 1.3450
Stop loss is 1.3250
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Monday, March 7, 2016
Going Long EURAUD Now
I like the action off the bottom to signal that wave 2 is potentially over and a large rally phase is getting underway. This pair is significantly oversold so at least a short term pop is due. Either way, I just want a piece of the rally. I'm going to attempt a long here. If it doesn't work out, I will retry again when another long signal arises. Here is my setup:
Long now at 1.4835
Profit Target 1.5030
Stop Loss 1.4685
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Elliott Wave Index Futures
Today's market action quite boring and uneventful. Most likely the market is just taking a breather
before marching higher. The one thing to watch for is if the continued divergence between new highs in the S&P not matching the higher risk indexes. Usually I'd be more worried if the higher risk indexes were not following the major S&P and Dow so since this is the opposite where the S&P failed to make a new high with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap indexes, I'm not as concerned.
However, the longer the S&P goes without confirming the highs in the higher risk indexes, the more likely selling pressure will enter he market. So, just something to be mindful of.
In addition, a break below 1998 in the S&P futures will confirm a head and shoulder top as well, and therefore signal a sell off fairly quickly.
Elliott Wave Forex Trading
EURAUD is looking ripe for a major rally phase to get underway. 2nd waves can go quite deep so I need to remain patient and disciplined. once I see the desired bullish action I will hit this pair long.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
USDCAD on my Radar
USDCAD has become severely oversold in its 3rd wave and so I'm looking for some strength in order to get long soon.
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