Elliott Wave Futures - S&P (ES)

So after my expression of doubt on the S&P bullish case, the market undergoes about a 30 point rally between yesterday and today.  I altered the count to support a continued uptrend, and also moved up the breaking point for the bullish case to 2008.  This is the high of wave i, it is also a swing low for wave iv, and so price should not come down to break that level.  I know that it won't break any EWP rules at this point if it does since wave v has already made a new high, but you'll notice that price has fallen outside of the channel and should be a wave 3 at multiple degrees.  Since price behavior is not consistent with that, I am not going to give the market much leeway to continue under performing.

I remain cautiously bullish the stock market as long as 2008 is not broken.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Campbell Soup (CPB)

Campbell Soup (CPB) is in a similar scenario as BKH in that it is about to undergo a C wave within a 2nd wave.  Here we have wave (c) within wave ((ii)).  I uses wave relationship Fibonacci analysis between wave (a) and (c) as well as Fibonacci retracement levels of wave ((i)) and we can see a confluence of support between $61 - $62, so my target will probably be in that area.  I placed a vertical put option spread for this trade:

Buy to open May 20  60/65 Put


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Elliott Wave Options Signals - Black Hills Corp (BKH)

Black Hills Corp. is in a wave (ii) within a larger bullish move.  More importantly, it is in wave c of wave (ii), which is an impulsive affair, and therefore should be quite sharp.  Using wave analysis comparing wave A to wave C, and Fibonacci retracements of wave (i), I see a confluence of support between $56 - $57, so my target will lie somewhere in that area.  I placed a put option vertical spread:

Buy to open May 20  55/60 Put


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Elliott Wave Option Signals - KORS Short

KORS has formed a short term too that should see the retailer drop to at least the $51.50 - $51.75 area before resuming its uptrend.  I placed a put spread in for this trade and here are the details:

Sell May 50 Put
Buy May 55.5 Put
Limit price of $1.65 per contract

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Elliott Wave Futures Signals

There was some minor inter-market divergenceyesterday as the S&P futures made new highs on the day while the Russell and S&P Midcap did not. This divergence signaled weakness entering today's session. However, this does not alter the wave count or the call for higher levels, which should be right around the corner.. I remain bullish the stock market.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures Signals - S&P Futures

Nothing has changed to my 4hr analysis on the S&P.  It is still moving higher in wave iii to target the wave i Fibonacci extension level of 161% at 2095.  I added another degree of wave to break down some of the small time frame action as well.

Drilling down a few wave degrees on the 15min chart you can see the inner workings of the waves at a much smaller degree.  Here, I see wave ((3)) extending to middle channel line resistance and Fibonacci extension of wave ((1)) at 127% at 2067.50.  Preferably, 2000 should stay intact for the bullish case to remain highly likely, but ultimately, 1958 is the key level the bulls need to defend.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signal - Long LNKD

Linkedin fell off a cliff a few weeks ago and was met with heavy volume and at least a temporary
bottom. After correcting higher it has traversed sideways and into a buy signal on my proprietary indicators. I don't like to go into a trade just based on the signal, I need the wave count and price action to support the signal. Up until today, LNKD showed more weakness relative to the rest of the market until today where it has popped and held at a 2.5% rally. I like this price action  now and the wave count suggesting an impulsive wave C higher. from current levels

Using the Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) and the ratio analysis of wave A, I project  move to the confluence of resistance at $136-$159.  I want enter only half of my normal position size in case save B down unfolds a little further so I can add to my position at a better price later.  Here is my trade:

Buy April 29 112 Call at -$8.80

Sell April 29 132 Call at +$2.04

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Blog Futures Signals - S&P Futures Chart

I wish I had something really cool and insightful to say this morning, but I don't. A  pretty uneventful overnight session and it is leading into what looks like is going to be an uneventful US Friday session.  The same parameters hold from yesterday in that wave iii should continue higher toward the Fibonacci extension levels of wave i marked at 2042.75, 2065.75, 2095 and 2127.50 (see chart).  Most likely, wave iii will end around upper channel resistance and the Fibonacci extension of 161%, giving an estimated stopping area of around 2075-2100.  This should occur as long as 1958 remains intact.  The reason for that is because that will break the series of higher lows that have been in place for several weeks, and because it will be very difficult to create a viable impulsive wave count from the wave C low at the 1802.50 if price goes below 1958.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Signals - UNG Trade Update

I wanted to give a quick update to my long call spread on UNG. UNG popped over 3% today after a volatile session and is showing signs of a bullish breakout.  Attached is an updated chart that shows a nice breakout above an upper channel of resistance, a retest of that resistance which became support, then a resumption higher.  Price has paused at the 38% Fibonacci level but will continue higher toward the 50% Fibonacci level ($7.14) at a minimum.  The price action I described around the upper channel line is indicative of a breakout.  So although that would most likely mean my wave count is wrong and that wave 5 is complete, it still means higher levels in the near future.

Unfortunately the way this spread was setup, the sooner that happens the smaller the profit. But, whenever price hits my target, around $7.10, I will take profits even if they will be fairly small.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures Signals - S&P Futures

The S&P is bouncing along lower channel support, which means it is establishing that as a key level.  Preferably, I would like to see that support hold (no solid 4hr close beneath it) to keep the bullish count intact.  We're reaching a point where I'll have to continue drilling down with the series of 1st and 2nd waves which, in my experience, often means I'm trying to fit an impulsive rally into a correction.  But, as long as channel support holds and especially 1958, it means the series of higher highs and higher lows is intact and therefore a clear uptrend is in play.  The Fed news is behind us so we can go back to focusing on charts and technicals that brings us success.

I still expect the S&P to shoot up to the 2075-2100 rather quickly from here.

On another note, the AUDNZD shot up and took out my adjusted stop loss at break even, then dropped down to my target overnight in the London session, leaving me out of the trade for 0 pips.  Very frustrating to say the least.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures - S&P

I just wanted to update my S&P futures chart.  Price dipped down to test the lower channel line like I anticipated in my post yesterday.  I see prices moving higher in a 3rd now.  Today's Fed meeting could be a good catalyst for that to occur.  I expect the usual whipsaw action around the meeting which is something I want nothing to do with and I usually try to close tight stop trades around this time.  I only have a long Natural Gas ETF position and a sell stop entry in place on the AUDNZD going into the meeting so I'm comfortable with that.

More after the government interferes with the free market later today...

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option/Stock Signal - UNG Long is Active

The UNG popped big this morning almost 4% and I definitely didn't want to get long there. It has since pulled back almost 1.5% so I got long a full call spread position as stated in my previous post:

The natural gas ETF (UNG) is really testing my trading discipline as it closed two days in a row right on the confirmation level of my proprietary indicators, and also did not close above the upper end of the trend channel.  So I'm a bit apprehensive here.  With the heavy news hitting the wires this week, and the fact that this ETF can really move fast, I want to get some exposure to a long trade here. If I like the open tomorrow morning I plan to go long with with only half of my normal position size with the following setup:

Long Call Vertical Spread:

Buy April 29 call at 6.5 cost of $0.46

Sell April 29 call at 7.5 collect $0.14

I'm looking for a move to around $7.30 which will target a 100%-165% profit on this spread.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

The stock market appears to be headed towards channel line support of waves ((i)) and ((ii)) around 1992 before resuming its uptrend.  1957 is a key level for the S&P futures as it holds the series of higher lows in place, and therefore holds the uptrend in place.  Until that break occurs, I will continue looking for higher levels in the stock market.

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock and Option Signal - UNG Long

The natural gas ETF (UNG) is really testing my trading discipline as it closed two days in a row right on the confirmation level of my proprietary indicators, and also did not close above the upper end of the trend channel.  So I'm a bit apprehensive here.  With the heavy news hitting the wires this week, and the fact that this ETF can really move fast, I want to get some exposure to a long trade here. If I like the open tomorrow morning I plan to go long with with only half of my normal position size with the following setup:

Long Call Vertical Spread:

Buy April 29 call at 6.5 cost of $0.46

Sell April 29 call at 7.5 collect $0.14

I'm looking for a move to around $7.30 which will target a 100%-165% profit on this spread.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Signal - CHGG

I posted a bullish setup on Chegg last week and said I was waiting for a confirmation signal to get
long. The long signal was triggered on Friday's close but unfortunately there is no viable option strategy to place. The risk/reward is far from desirable so I will not trade it. However, I do anticipate a move towards $5.50 which closes a gap and also hits the 61% Fibonacci retracement level.  This move should occur within a month which would be about a 15% gain rather quickly. This trade would be invalidated if the stock makes a new low, which is real far away and so also doesn't make a desirable straight up stock play either.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

Looks like some soft pullback will occur here. I'm looking at the prior 4th waves in conjunction with Fibonacci retracement levels 23% and 38%.  The rolling over nature of the correction so far could be a concern if it's indicative of a sharp downward correction soon.  Until that happens, I'm looking for just some small pullback to the 1990-2000 area before the strong uptrend resumes.

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 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

The decline went a little further than I anticipated and created overlap of wave (i).  Therefore, I cannot label that decline a wave (iv) since 4th waves cannot overlap with the 1st waves at the same degree except in an ending diagonal.  This wave cannot be an ending diagonal though, because it's within a larger wave ((iii)), and ending diagonals can only occur in 5th and C waves.

So, a recount is in order (see attached chart).  The series of higher highs and higher lows continues, so I remain bullish the stock market.  Adjusting the wave count to current price action leaves us with a much more bullish outlook as wave (iii) is now subdividing further.  Instead of the recent decline being a wave (iv) and therefore nearing the end of wave ((iii)), I now count the recent decline as a smaller degree wave ii.  So wave ((iii)) will be much longer under this count.  This may be tough follow when reading, but if you look at the chart, and compare it to my previous chart (click here), you'll see my point illustrated rather clearly.

I did some ratio analysis to try and determine the projected price of waves iii and (iii).  As you can see, the Fibo extension levels that are a good stopping point for wave iii are between 2068 and 2078,  From there, it's likely the market will continue on higher to finish wave ((iii)) at around 2100.  And this fits well with the my overall analysis over the last few weeks that a meaningful correction in the stock market probably won't occur until 2100 (S&P futures) is reached.

So there is plenty of evidence that the market will continue higher in the coming weeks.  A break below 1920.75 would alter that view.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Trading - UNG on Watchlist

The US natural gas ETF (UNG), could be a large 4th wave which I count as a bullish C wave in a correction. Also note the large amount of volume entering this market the couple months as it appears to be trying to form a bottom.  I project that price will get to $7.15-$7.30 if price moves to confirm my proprietary indicators' bullish signal. A decent close higher tomorrow should trigger the signal and I will attempt to get long a call spread of values are desirable.

Elliott Wave Index Futures

Not much new to add on the S&P.  The market is churning sideways in a 4th wave and should resume its uptrend soon in what should be an extended 5th wave.  Using wave relationships, a logical place for wave ((iii)) to end is at the wave ((i)) Fibonacci 138% extension level at 2082.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Trading - Chegg on Watchlist

The Chegg wave count and technical setup is appealing from a bullish perspective. I am simply waiting for bullish confirmation to get long a call option or call spread.

On a sour note, my gut was right in knowing I would regret re-entering the EURAUD trade as I was stopped out last night for a loss of 113 pips.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.