Saturday, January 7, 2017

Forex Analysis - USDJPY

Forex US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

In looking at my forex workspace, I note a good longer term opportunity with shorting the USDJPY.  Notice that price has rallied sharply the last few months and has triggered my custom indicator to print some magenta bearish paint bars in the middle of the rally.  These paint bars usually indicate when a currency has moved too far too fast, and so at least a short term pause or pull back is in order.  However, you can see that the USDJPY ignored this several times and kept shooting higher.

After the magenta paint bars, you'll notice some red paint bars which is a combination of momentum and volatility indicators noting that price has gone way too far and to look for a confirmation signal with a price close below the key moving average (yellow line).  Then, two days ago, you'll notice that the signal was confirmed with a close below the yellow line, and the upper band of the volatility indicator.  This is accompanied by a modified RSI which has been severely overbought for several weeks and is starting to turn down, while at the same time there is a bearish squeeze in my histogram just below it.  So you have a bearish squeeze at the same time the RSI is overbought, which is a very bearish sign.  Lastly, you'll notice that my momentum indicator is also showing bearish divergence.

Now this is a large and long uptrend that I'm calling to be broken, and usually these types of trends don't give up easily.  You can see that the day after the USDJPY broke below the moving average (yellow line) that it immediately reversed higher and kissed the yellow line and practically close right on it on Friday.  Then, when you look at my momentum comparison of all major currencies in the bottom right of the work space, you'll see that the US Dollar is all by its lonesome trying to make a push higher, while everything else, including the Japanese yen, is trending down.  Directly above that, you'll see that the US and Canadian dollars are the strongest in the market right now as well.  So, I'm not entirely confident that the USDJPY will breakdown immediately, as there may be another push to a new high in the next few days.  If so, I'll be looking closely for reversal patterns at that new high to hit it short.  I am currently modestly short the USDJPY now, but am prepared for a new high to add to that short position.

Forex analysis


Let's look at the wave count and Fibonacci data. I can count a sharp wave ((2)) rally ending right at the 78% Fibonacci level of the decline that started from 123.75.  If this count is correct, the USDJPY should not make a new high and should almost immediately undergo a sharp decline lower in a large wave ((3)) down.  If so, this would be a great risk/reward trade as I can go short from current levels with a stop just above 118.50, risking a little over 150 pips with the potential to 2000+ pips.  Now I doubt I would hold it that long, but it gives you an idea of the limited upside from here, and the extraordinary potential to the downside.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

S&P Futures and Financial Sector Analysis

@ES S&P Analysis

The market has more or less traced out as I have projected.  The key level for the long term bullish view is the US Election Day reversal and rally from 2023.25.  The market appears to be unfolding in a series of 1 and 2 waves which is very bullish.  Keeping the recent swing lows intact bolsters the bullish view as well.  In addition, the Donald Trump bullish US economic boost hope is still in place, and despite recent overbought indicators, the market has only paused and then resumed its rally.  Again, this fits well with the wave count above.

XLF Financials Analysis

In looking at the stock market sector breakdown, I see that sectors such as Biotech and Health Care are trending up quite sharply.  On the other hand, Financials and Gold Miners are losing some steam.  I want to focus on Financials primarily for now, and specifically the XLF.  There are several bearish signals in place that has resulted in me getting short numerous financial stocks such as Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Capital One to name a few.

Notice in the chart above the magenta paint bar which marks when the stock has moved too far too fast, and it's confirmed by the green histogram below as it breached the upper moving average plotted with white dashes.  The stock was also well above its volatility band (magenta average below price).  The stock later stalled, and a bearish signal initiated with the red paint bars, which was later confirmed by a close below a key moving average.  In addition, you will notice at the bottom that the modified RSI has been running overbought for a long time and is now trending down with plenty of room to run, and there is a bearish squeeze on the histogram, accompanied by bearish divergence on my momentum indicator.  This sector is extremely bearish from a technical standpoint, so I am looking to continue getting short individual stocks, or even the sector ETF as a whole, over the upcoming weeks.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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