I keep trying to develop a viable bearish count, meaning that the rally over the past several months is just a correction. I can do it if I just look at labeling waves just a few months back, but when including the entire history of the S&P, I find it very difficult. All I am left with is two different degrees of bullish counts that look like higher levels are right around the corner. With the jobs number coming out tomorrow, we could get a sharp pop higher and then reversal in the same day. As long as 2008 remains intact, I remain cautiously bullish.
However, I do note that now 127 stocks on my proprietary indicators have sell signals while only 12 have long signals. This is a very strong indication that a pullback is close.
Here is an alternate count with larger degree waves. Looking at some channel and wave ratio analysis, the projected target for wave 5 is about 2100. This fits well with my projection several weeks ago and is a nice round number for resistance.
So, both counts are bullish in the short term, but both are 5th waves so I would be looking for weakness after a sharp burst higher.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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