Above is a screenshot of the Nasdaq 100 30min chart. It shows a not so perfect trendline that has held the market up the past few days as it's bumped down on it several times but failed to break through. Although I don't show it here, the SPY shows a increase in volume surrounding the trendline break in the NDX, but has since tapered off as the market has continued to fall. Also notice (blue circled) that the indices that led us to the upside the past week or so, the Nasdaq 100, Composite, and Russell, are all leading on the way down now as their percentage losses are about double the losses of the S&P and Dow. Also notice (blue circled) that the "market bellwether" Goldman Sachs is down over 2.5% today. When Goldman, the small cap indices, and tech all show signs of exceeding weakness than the Dow and S&P, it should be paid attention to.
This by no means is a signal to get aggressively short. I'm merely pointing out what I see that may snowball into something greater. No confirmation or five wave drops have occured yet, so I still remain neutral in the short term. But this behavior this morning so far has gotten my attention.
AUD/USD
Another thing worth noting is the breakdowns appearing in the majors. Although I don't see any completed 5 wave decline yet, I do see a rolling over of the EUR/USD and AUD/USD, and the GBP/USD appears to have topped and is completing a wave 4 and soon to be wave 5. The AUD/USD has lagged a bit to the downside so it might create a good opportunity to get short with a stop at the previous swing high above 0.9140. I would trail my stop down as new swing highs are made. As long as the series of lower highs is maintained, this pair is bearish, and I'd like to be short it. The EUR/USD also presents a good shorting opportunity but the risk is a bit wider. So this means I'm now short term bullish the US dollar, and that means I'm bearish the GBP/USD, EUR/USD and the AUD/USD.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
3 comments:
Hello Todd:
And what is your opinion about usd/cad and gold?
I am seeing good potential there.
The dolar was weak today finally and the Us market neutral.
Europe good!!
Regards.
I actually don't have a position on either. I have not been good at trading USD/CAD or gold so I tend to avoid them. Although I do think the dollar is making another push higher, which means the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are headed lower.
Todd
Todd:
You make your trading decisions only based in Elliott waves, maximums and minimums or do you use some indicators?
I think gold is a good indicator actually of where the dollar and the stock markets can be strong or weak, for example today I see Europe up and gold up and the dollar weak.
I feel what for a strong dollar and a real bear market we need gold in three digits.
The first support is 1098.25 and we are in 1112.With some people talking about 1500 for this year and 2000 in the future.
It's sure I don't will be between the buyers because I only look opportunitys to go down.
I am some tired too:-))).
Regards.
Post a Comment