Well I've been dead wrong the past few days in projecting a top and reversal. But most people know calling an exact top or bottom is extremely difficult. There's no way I can get long this market right now, and there's no solid signs of a top yet to get short. So my stance remains the same, I see a top forming now, or very soon, and the structure and strength of the decline should tell me enough to become confident in establishing a position.
I was also quite wrong on the AUD/JPY position as I got blasted out of that position at a 268 pip loss. That was the first time, and maybe the last time, I've traded that pair. I'll be looking for other trades and post them here when they come up.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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4 comments:
Can you comment on high volume during the last two days?! Thank you.
The last two days have had a pick up in volume, yes. But I'm not sold that this is acting as a launching pad just yet. Putting that volume into context is important. The decline into Feb 5th was met with much larger volume that increased as the market dropped. The rally since then has had volume declining most of the way up. Even though the past two days have been met with increasing volume, it's still low relative to that of the preceding decling, and it takes more than two modest volume spikes to get me on the long side after such a huge rally to begin with.
At least that's the way I see it. How do you see it?
Todd
How I see it is we are toppy here. Some people think the volume increase is a confirmation of the bulls. But the last two days were the first time that we had good size of intra day sell off. By looking at SPY intra day volume, the volume increased during those sell offs. Therefore, I feel bearish.
I agree. In taking a step back and looking at volume as a whole, it seems the big volume comes in on the declines, even on the daily charts. But the market still manages to float higher and higher on low volume. Quite frustrating, but seems like a temporary behavior; and I would not be encouraged by this if I was a medium to long term bull.
Todd
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