Above is just a daily S&P cash count to keep focus on the bigger picture. The market should be in a wave 3 of [3] or C. So the market should actually be just getting destroyed day in and day out. That's not happening, but the market is working its way lower and rallies continue to be unenthusiastic, and cannot get any sustained momentum. Today is yet another example of that as the market was positive most of the day, only to get killed in the final minutes of trading to where the major indices closed negative, along with the NYSE internals, yet volume again remains quite light. Although this meandering decline and sideways action is not at all what I'd expect from a wave 3 of 3, it's still possible, and there's no reason to be encouraged by any bullish action as the bulls are almost non-existent lately, and the ones that do show up go home wounded by the end of the day. So the larger trend appears down, with more new lows to come.
POSSIBLE SHORT TERM COUNT
The above chart is a closeup of the action the past few days. It shows us finishing up a 4th wave triangle to where we'll be in a sharp thrust decline that will lead to a quick move below 1067.89 soon. As long as we stay below 1083.56, I have confidence this count is well in play.
S&P ALTERNATE COUNT
Unfortunately, the above triangle is also possible. This triangle has the market in a wave 'b' triangle that will lead to a sharp thrust higher. It should then be the tail end of wave ii of 3 of [3] or C which will then lead to a very sharp decline lower. A break above 1083.56 will put this count up at top choice.
Also, keep in mind that we have several factors coming into play this next couple of weeks that might influence the way the market moves. We have an important jobs number coming out the end of this week, the end of quarter jossling will probably still be occurring, the 4th of July holiday is this weekend, and many people might be going out of town for summer vacations. So things can get a bit wierd in coming days.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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