Fed Out of the Way, Bears Ready to Roar? (Note: new posting schedule)

The past few months I've found it more and more difficult to convey a thesis of the market that's different than the day before.  Well this is the nature of a bull market I suppose, slow and boring.  So instead of gettting to the point where I feel I'm just creating stories where there aren't any, I'm going to cut back my postings and saturate a few postings per week with the core elements to focus on.  Since EWI's Short Term Update comes out Monday, Wednesday and Friday, I will post my core thoughts and charts Tuesday and Thursday to help fill in the gaps that many wavers might feel they have.  On Monday, Wednesay, Friday and sometimes Sunday I will post internals data and brief comments on the day's action.  I'll also take requests to post things or discuss things from readers during that time as well.  Just email me at waver2011-1@yahoo.com. 

Today was another wild day with little changed at the end as far as price is concerned.  However Tech managed the best, and the internals were quite bullish at the close.  We had decent volume at 1.12 billion shares traded on the NYSE, but up volume was quite higher than down volume, and there were a whopping 1169 more advancers than decliners on the day which is quite high considering the modest gains in the indices.  Again, the bulls are showing that they are still in control. 

It may seem likely that a top is at hand since this market is well outstretched, but there are no signs of the bears coming in to take control at the moment so we should expect higher levels.  One piece of bearish evidence we had was the lagging behavior in the S&P compared to the Dow, but today the S&P made a new high, erasing the bearish divergence in the indices I've been discussing lately.  The Nasdaqs are still lagging, but nothing supports a decline from here that would be needed to confirm that divergence, and the Nasdaqs well exceeded the Dow today making up some solid ground.

So although the wave count, sentiment and momentum measures suggest a top is near, there is no confirmation or evidence that a top is at hand.  So again, we wait for Minute wave ((v)) to complete. 

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THE EURO

As for the euro, the rally lately has been relentless, but has gotten more and more choppy lately.  The RSI is diverging now from price up to the 4 hour charts.  Both suggest this rally is getting tired and stretched.  Once something occurs to suggest a top is in I will announce it here and we can try and catch a big wave down toward parity.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.