Market Whacky....but Might Just Be a Small 4th Wave; Euro Unchanged

I wish I had something interesting to write about today but I don't.  The market continues to wander around, giving no real definitive signs of reversal, or continuation for that matter.  Today's volume was light at just under 1 billion on the NYSE, and other internals were basically flat, along with market price.  So today tells us nothing really about the bigger picture.  A top MIGHT be in right now with a series of lower highs, but the internals don't suggest any capitulation or massive selling volume or pressure from the bears coming in to reverse the trend.  So let's look at the wave count.

I've mentioned a few times that we might just be in a small 4th wave and so today I labeled it Minuette wave (iv) above.  You can see that this would leave us with one more surge to a new high before forming a major top.  Now this is not required, and the series of lower highs on several indices and markets may be the first sign of a very quiet reversal.  But I would have a tight stop, preferably at the previous swing high, if I were to short here.  The light volume and meandering nature of this market fits more with a 4th wave, not a reversal in trend.  I would imagine a top at the degree wavers are projecting (Primary wave 2) would be a much more violent affair, and one accompanied by solid volume as well.  So we continue to wait.

As for the euro, it was practically unchanged.  It's possible a short term bounce capped well below 1.3400 will occur in the coming days which would align itself well with a stock market pop for Minuette wave (v) as well.  But neither bounces are required, and although it seems like the higher probability at this point, it wouldn't surprise me if at any time both the euro and stocks just fell off a cliff.  But until I get some kind of confirmation or certainty of a trend reversal, trading now would just be a guess.  And I don't trade on guesses.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.