Although it may seem like the markets have been wild lately, overall there is practically a net zero gain or loss over the past several months. The market is range bound and trading on very light volume. Wall Street must be working on their tans in the Hamptons and those left back to still trade are probably waiting for this US debt "crisis" to get solved. As for me, I've been hitting the beaches in souther California and the pools up here in the Bay Area. I plan to continue doing that until the market demands my attention.
Until the range is broken, there is no play here in my view. But whichever way the range is broken, up or down, should be the quick and sharp direction for the short term. So short term momentum traders can consider trading the breakout of the range.
One thing to note is that the Nasdaq 100 is the only major index that made new highs recently. The Dow, S&P and Composite have not. This type of divergence between markets often marks tops that last more than just a day.
Using Elliott Waves: As Simple As A-B-C
The euro rallied much higher than expected, and on the 1 hour chart it looks like it did so in a 5 wave move. But in the bigger picture, as seen in the daily chart above, you can see there's no real discernible EWP pattern here. So that means back to the basics. With lower highs and a new low just prior to the current rally, we can still say the trend in the euro is down. So at the moment, the bears have a good risk/reward ratio in going short now with a stop at the overnight high.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
2 comments:
I could not disagree more. There is a clear symmetrical triangle, with wave E finally making a very aggressive breakout, but reversing off the level of the previous wave 1 very aggressively, thereby confirming the wavecount. Therefore, the outlook longer term is actually bullish.
If you disagree with Prechter you must be correct. Look at his track record from 1995 to current. He is WRONG 90% of the time! He's a perma bear that thinks all waves point down. Examples; Prechter recently said go short silver when it was at $17 & chart showed contracting triangle! Then it went to $49! And in late 2009 he said go double short the DOW when it got up to 9,500. Well I'm done loosing money with him.
My new investment plan has been working great. Do EXACTLY the OPPOSITE of everything that Prechter says. Now I'm making some money.
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