Bye-bye Mr. Triangle, Stocks and Euro Headed Lower

I have said that I'd like to see the market pick up in volume, to at least 1 billion NYSE shares, and the 1225 level in the S&P be broken in order for me to remove the triangle count and put the aggressively bearish top count up as a far out first choice.  Well, we got both of those things with today's action.  There's still some risk to the short term bearish view with Thanksgiving week right around the corner, but I listen to the charts and internal behavior of the markets more than a loose historical seasonal bias.  The typically bullish week we are about to embark upon should be considered as a part of the overall trading strategy, but in my opinion it shouldn't be the sole reason for making a trade.

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Above is the top count and it is aggressively bearish and means the market should unfold sharply lower in the coming weeks.  Yesterday I eluded to Elliott Wave International's "Short Term Update" bringing an issue related to the triangle.  At the time I didn't want to divulge proprietary information, but now that the triangle is broken I'd like to explain further.  The Short Term Update brought to light an issue that contradicted the likelihood of the triangle scenario playing out.  They (Steve Hochberg) stated that yesterday the Wall Street Journal published a story that an extremely bullish triangle formation was in place.  So of course, the contrarian method of thinking is that if the Wall Street Journal is reporting a bullish triangle is in place, then that means it's a pretty mainstream thought and therefore it most likely will NOT occur.  In yesterday's post, I eluded to Hochberg's statement because I thought it was the strongest piece of evidence against the triangle interpretation.  It turns out Hochberg was very wise to post that analysis yesterday.  The triangle scenario has been eliminated, and the EWP structure suggests the market will head sharply lower soon.

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The euro rally has been very flat and filled with 3 wave moves as it only progresses sideways as you can see from the above chart.  This is clearly corrective and suggests the euro will head lower soon.  And remember, the last few years I can remember, the euro has been sold off hard during Thanksgiving week.  Like I said for stocks, I don't think these types of historical seasonal biases should be traded on solely, but they should definitely be considered.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.