Getting Long S&P Futures

The market sold off on Yellen's talk about an interest rate hike later this year. We already knew that, so this selloff is nonsense. Internals are strong and I doubt anyone was surprised by Yellen's comments and will want to get heavily short before the weekend. I'm getting long at 2069.

USDCAD Update

Trade is off the table as the pair shot lower and has now formed an unidentifiable formation. So, no trade.

USDCAD Bullish Triangle

Keep it simple everyone. There's a nice clear triangle finishing in the USDCAD.  Since triangles are consolidations before a continuation of the previous trend, we know this triangle will result in a sharp move up soon.  To make sure it's not a B wave that will thrust lower, I'm looking to get long at 1.2765 with a stop at 1.2740 and taking profit at 1.2790.

Dollar Way Overbought

The dollar is way overbought so I'm looking for a pair to surge against the dollar for a short term trade. GBPUSD looks way oversold and set to rally any minute now.  I like starting to get long here with stops at 1.5690 and looking for a move to test the 1.5800 level within the next 24 hours. 

EURUSD Breaking Out of Triangle

The EURUSD is breaking out of a triangle to the upside.  Pretty simple longer term trade setup here: long with a stop just below the Fed news spike at 1.1210 and looking to take profits at the 1.1465 area.

Holding Off on Dollar Longs

The dollar has not rallied like I expected. Despite .9190 USDCHF holding, the dollar cannot find its legs and sustain a move higher. We are going into a Fed meeting tomorrow so things will get whacky, and according FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Index, retail traders are heavily long the dollar right now.  So I do not like being long the dollar right now. But once the Fed is out of the way I will be looking to get long the dollar through AUDUSD GBPUSD shorts and/or USDCHF longs when the setups are right. 

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Getting Long the Dollar

Last trade resulted in an 81 pip loss so I look to come back with a nice trade now.  The dollar is looking very oversold in the short term, and my wave count on the USDCHF has a large impulsive rally for a wave 1, and then a very deep a)) b)) c)) decline.  USDCHF should rally AT A MINIMUM her to the 0.9300 area, but according to this wave count, and 2 year support holding well, getting long against 0.9190 for long term or short term setup seems like a good choice here.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURAUD Set to Fall Hard Soon

I've seen enough on this pair to conclude that it will sell off soon. It is severely overbought short term. As long as 1.4681 holds, then prices are poised to shoot lower very soon. My initial target is at 1.4400, which is over 200 pips away. But risking 70 pips to make 200 in a high probability trade is always desirable.

Plus, the backdrop of EURUSD weakness that seems to be taking hold again, I like getting short the EURAUD as the technical setup and risk/reward is quite favorable out of all the euro pairs.

USDJPY Trade Good for a Quick 25 Pips

Just a quick follow-up on the USDJPY trade I mentioned this morning.  Where it goes from here, I'm not sure, but the rally off the low looks corrective.  But I just liked the high probability trade I saw.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

USDJPY to Pull Back Here

I've seen enough to call a top in the USDJPY for a short term trade. We had a nice bullish 4th wave triangle followed by a 5th wave thrust which is so far confirmed by divergence with the RSI. Look for the USDJPY to return to at least the apex of the triangle soon in the 124.30 - 124.40 area at least. There's still a lot of room to the downside after that if you trail your stop.

My Personally Developed EA Portfolio is up 1055 Pips and 14.2% on a $1,000 Account

This is a live account where I started my custom EA portfolio April 1, 2015.  The MYfxbook tracking starts at the account inception which is misleading since another wild strategy was on the before.  You'll notice that since the start of the current portfolio, it is much less volatile with only an 11.3% drawdown and smooth upslope forming.  2.5 months, up over 1000 pips and 14%, not a bad start.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUDUSD 124 Pip Profit

Well that worked out nicely.  There was a quick 124 pip drop since my last post calling for a bearish move lower soon.  Prices certainly have room to move a bit lower, but support could firm up a bit here and the move lower has been sharp.  I'm taking profits here and looking for the next big move.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUDUSD Overbought, Recent Selling Could Signal Major Top

The latest push higher from the AUDUSD 4hr chart created a divergence between price and the RSI, suggesting the rally off the .7550 level is exhausting.  This exhaustion is also confirmed on my own indicators as they are showing the AUDUSD is way overbought on the short term timeframe, and approaching overbought on the longer timeframe.

I don't like counting corrections as there are so many EWP variations, and it's very difficult to predict which one is unfolding at any given time as they can continue to morph into combination and combination.  So I usually just look to confirm that it is in fact a correction, and I try to find a 5 wave move in the direction of the correction since C waves typically end corrections, and C waves are impulsive.

Here on the AUDUSD 1hr chart we do see a 5 wave rally into the high which established the RSI divergence shown on the 4hr chart.  .8040 looks like a good shorting level with a tight stop for aggressive traders at .8055, or at .8067 for less aggressive traders.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURGBP Collapsed as Projected

The pair fell as projected and achieved the .7300 rather quickly.  I'm flat this pair now and waiting for the unemployment news tomorrow before stepping back in to analyze the markets again.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EUR/GBP Topping

The EURGBP is very stretched at this point and the 5 wave rally accompanied by RSI divergence is sending a strong signal that a nice pullback of 100+ pips is coming very soon. I'm targeting the 7300 area since that's just below the previous 4th wave and also round number support.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.