S&P Futures Headed Lower in Coming Days

S&P futures are headed into a major top, but still have some work to do to get there.  The daily count suggests some pullback before resuming the uptrend on one final push.  I count a C wave down in the works now, but with the way the S&Ps have traded lately in a choppy mess, I doubt it will unfold in a clear 5 wave decline like I have labeled.  The key is to look for something that resembles a C wave whether a clear impulse or perhaps a diagonal.  Regardless, look for lower levels and a breech below 2034.50 before bouncing and resuming its uptrend.  However, short term, it's oversold so a short term rally may occur.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURUSD Downside Target Levels

I just wanted to follow-up on my EURUSD analysis and prepare for possible lower levels this week.  Under the current count, the EURUSD is set to fall sharply in a wave (3).  If so, a likely target will be the 161% Fibo of Wave (1) at 1.0388.  Fibo extensions, which are likely in third waves, continue to the 1.0140 and 0.9740 levels.

I'll update the short term action as it unfolds, and readjust the count as warranted.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

USDJPY May See Pull Back Before Continuing Higher

With the EURUSD possibly resuming its downtrend I'm looking for other pairs to capitalize on the return of dollar strength.  The USDJPY has a strong impulsive rise on the hourly chart from 120.42, but really struggled for new highs once it reached 123.73.  The new highs from that level were hard fought choppy grinds with a bearishly divergent RSI.  I believe the current downward consolidation is an (a) and (b) wave, which sets up nicely with the price action I just described.  That type of price action usually results in a sharp retracement.  That "sharp retracement" will fit nicely with a wave (c), and therefore ending wave ((ii)).

For now, I'm looking for a move down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 120.45.  Price behavior around that area will give us a clue as to how it will progress from there.  Over the next several hours, price should continue to close at or beneath the moving averages I have on my chart.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURUSD Wave Count

The EUR/USD may have resumed it's downtrend.  There's a nice topping formation near the 23% Fibonacci level, and the area of a previous 4th wave (not shown).  It's a very shallow correction relative to the preceding decline, but it's a 4th wave and so 4th waves tend to be shallow sideways affairs.  So the downtrend may be getting back underway here, especially if it can close to new lows beneath 1.0800.  I'd be looking for shorts as long as price stays below 1.1216, but should find some stiff resistance at the moving averages shown on the charts, as well as the 23% Fibonacci level.

Here's a wave count on the hourly chart so you can see how it's unfolding from an intraday level.  As long as the series of lower lows and lower highs continues, the trend is down, it's as simple as that as we start the week again.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Getting Long S&P Futures

The market sold off on Yellen's talk about an interest rate hike later this year. We already knew that, so this selloff is nonsense. Internals are strong and I doubt anyone was surprised by Yellen's comments and will want to get heavily short before the weekend. I'm getting long at 2069.

USDCAD Update

Trade is off the table as the pair shot lower and has now formed an unidentifiable formation. So, no trade.

USDCAD Bullish Triangle

Keep it simple everyone. There's a nice clear triangle finishing in the USDCAD.  Since triangles are consolidations before a continuation of the previous trend, we know this triangle will result in a sharp move up soon.  To make sure it's not a B wave that will thrust lower, I'm looking to get long at 1.2765 with a stop at 1.2740 and taking profit at 1.2790.

Dollar Way Overbought

The dollar is way overbought so I'm looking for a pair to surge against the dollar for a short term trade. GBPUSD looks way oversold and set to rally any minute now.  I like starting to get long here with stops at 1.5690 and looking for a move to test the 1.5800 level within the next 24 hours. 

EURUSD Breaking Out of Triangle

The EURUSD is breaking out of a triangle to the upside.  Pretty simple longer term trade setup here: long with a stop just below the Fed news spike at 1.1210 and looking to take profits at the 1.1465 area.

Holding Off on Dollar Longs

The dollar has not rallied like I expected. Despite .9190 USDCHF holding, the dollar cannot find its legs and sustain a move higher. We are going into a Fed meeting tomorrow so things will get whacky, and according FXCM's Speculative Sentiment Index, retail traders are heavily long the dollar right now.  So I do not like being long the dollar right now. But once the Fed is out of the way I will be looking to get long the dollar through AUDUSD GBPUSD shorts and/or USDCHF longs when the setups are right. 

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Getting Long the Dollar

Last trade resulted in an 81 pip loss so I look to come back with a nice trade now.  The dollar is looking very oversold in the short term, and my wave count on the USDCHF has a large impulsive rally for a wave 1, and then a very deep a)) b)) c)) decline.  USDCHF should rally AT A MINIMUM her to the 0.9300 area, but according to this wave count, and 2 year support holding well, getting long against 0.9190 for long term or short term setup seems like a good choice here.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

EURAUD Set to Fall Hard Soon

I've seen enough on this pair to conclude that it will sell off soon. It is severely overbought short term. As long as 1.4681 holds, then prices are poised to shoot lower very soon. My initial target is at 1.4400, which is over 200 pips away. But risking 70 pips to make 200 in a high probability trade is always desirable.

Plus, the backdrop of EURUSD weakness that seems to be taking hold again, I like getting short the EURAUD as the technical setup and risk/reward is quite favorable out of all the euro pairs.

USDJPY Trade Good for a Quick 25 Pips

Just a quick follow-up on the USDJPY trade I mentioned this morning.  Where it goes from here, I'm not sure, but the rally off the low looks corrective.  But I just liked the high probability trade I saw.


PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

USDJPY to Pull Back Here

I've seen enough to call a top in the USDJPY for a short term trade. We had a nice bullish 4th wave triangle followed by a 5th wave thrust which is so far confirmed by divergence with the RSI. Look for the USDJPY to return to at least the apex of the triangle soon in the 124.30 - 124.40 area at least. There's still a lot of room to the downside after that if you trail your stop.

My Personally Developed EA Portfolio is up 1055 Pips and 14.2% on a $1,000 Account

This is a live account where I started my custom EA portfolio April 1, 2015.  The MYfxbook tracking starts at the account inception which is misleading since another wild strategy was on the before.  You'll notice that since the start of the current portfolio, it is much less volatile with only an 11.3% drawdown and smooth upslope forming.  2.5 months, up over 1000 pips and 14%, not a bad start.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.