Tuesday and Thursday - In-depth posts
Stocks took the day off today and just flip-flopped sideways on very low volume (934 billion shares NYSE), although the bias internally was bearish since more declining volume hit the tables than advancing volume, and especialy in the S&P there were a lot more declining issues than advancing issues. When you add it all together it fits well as a 4th wave at some small degree. The Nasdaq Composite still has not made a new high along with the Dow and S&P which I mentioned yesterday, and it has been lagging the two big indices the past couple weeks. I'm doubtful that divergence will hold though, and if the S&P is in a 4th wave then it all adds up to at least one more push higher to new highs for the market before we can even think about a top again. Yesterday's big up day on solid volume and internals leaves me very cautious of being too aggressive too soon on the bearish side. Oftentimes those types of days act as launching pads for the next week or so unless the bears come in and push the market down convincingly in price and internally.
Once the market tops and reverses we should see at least a 100 point S&P decline so trying to catch the absolute top seems unnecessary and foolish to me. Once I see a evidence of a top, and especially confirmation of a top, I can again try getting short. Until then, I wait.
As for the euro, the rally haulted today but has not made a convincing decline to suggest a top is in place. Although a top can happen anytime, until there's evidence to suggest it's in, I'm staying on the sidelines for now.
Full post tomorrow....
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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