Stock Rally Shows no Signs of Reversing; But Euro Appears to have Topped

Internals today were flat, usual for a Friday, although I expected a little more volatility on a jobs report day.  Currencies certainly moved big this morning, and the euro declined in five waves, but it seems like most market participants went home early for Superbowl weekend because after the morning action, the markets were fairly flat.  Volume supports this theory since only 919 million shares were traded on the NYSE.  The market's rally has lost enthusiasm but that doesn't eliminate the possibility of another upward shot Monday, but it does mean that the risk is to the downside and the next big sustained move will probably be down from here, not up.  With no evidence of a top in place, I cannot get short yet.  I can only wait for evidence to surface.

Closing below the trendline I drew here would be a good start to calling a top and trying the short side.  The trendline hovers around 1275 early next week, so we'll see what the bears can do.  Momentum is still diverging from price during the S&P's 5th wave as seen by the RSI.  So the wave count and momentum suggest this rally is ready to turn.  A close beneath the trendline and/or a nice impulsive 5 wave drop with solid volume would also be nice for a bearish trade to be executed with confidence.

Enjoy the Superbowl!  I like both teams and believe both equally deserve the victory this year.  But if I had to pick a side I'd have to go with the Packers since I think they are playing superior defense right now, and they'll get to Roethlisberger all night making it very difficult for Pitt to get anything done on offense.  Cheers!

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.