Monday, Wednesday and Friday - Brief summary posts
Tuesday and Thursday - In-depth posts
We got a little more volatility and volume in the market today, however I should underline little since that's the best way to describe the increase. Today the NYSE hit 947 million shares, which is more than the past two days but still very light volume. Declining volume was slanted modestly in the bears' favor and there were 721 more decliners than advancers on the NYSE. The S&P internals show an almost flat index with the bears having a slight edge. After such a long uptrend that looks severely exhausted in price action, wave structure, momentum indicators, volume and other internals, I am expecting more of a "wow" event for a top to be in place that what occurred today. Today feels like a small correction of the uptrend and the Dow's structure looks almost certain of that. Until we get a big gap down or breaking of the uptrend technically, we have to expect higher levels.
Addendum (6pm EST): Cisco reported worse than expected profit margins and the stock is getting punished by over 8.5% in the afterhours session right now (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/csco). Cisco often acts a good bellwether for the overall stock market's upcoming quarter, and their CEO, John Chambers, often tells it like it is. If this holds true, the stock market has a good chance of selling off tomorrow starting the long awaited 100+ point S&P decline over the next few weeks/months. Watch Cisco afterhours, the stock market should follow its lead.
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The euro count appears to show a rally in its final stages. I'm unsure of the medium term wave count at this point but I'm an overall long term euro bear so the impulsive decline from early this month has me liking the short side here for this pair. It looks like a double zig-zag correction has unfolded and nearing an end with a couple of small flat corrections in the mix. If correct, the euro should fall hard soon. Stocks should follow. 1.3861 is the key level for the bears that must hold. Today's rally makes the risk/reward here even more enticing on the short side.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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