Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Stock Bulls Have Shakey Legs Here, Waiting for Bears to Pounce



Stocks rallied most of the afternoon but again did so on very light volume.  The bulls still haven't come close to taking back what the bears accomplished in just an hour or two yesterday on high volume suggesting the larger trend remains down.  Once this light volume float higher ends (short of 1322.88), the market should undergo more sharp declines to new lows.  I remain bearish as long as the S&P trades below 1322.88.



(POST THIS MORNING) Stocks trading very heavy.  Yesterday the bulls did everything they could to push this market out of the red from that deep early morning selloff but they didn't even come close with the Dow still closing triple digits on the day with very bearish internals.  Now today, again the bulls are pushing hard to get this market out of the gutter and so far are failing to do so.  This tells me the headwinds the bulls are facing here are very strong and that they will lose the fight to push this market higher.  It's like those old cartoons when the guy lifts something heavy over his head and his little legs are shaking rapidly as he tries to keep the weight up.  Well, the bulls' legs are shakey here. 

Look for this bull attempt to fail well short of the 1322.88 level.  As long as the S&P stays below that level, I'm bearish.  There is good potential for large gains on the short side here in my opinion.

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The above S&P chart shows the open gap left from Monday's big drop.  Stocks may attempt to close that gap at 1319.65.  But since it would be so deep and so close to the wave ((ii)) stopping level I'm not sure the bulls can accomplish a complete close.  Once the market moves into that gap area at all, be prepared for a sharp reversal at any time.  Playing reversal bars or reversal volume plays on the intraday charts may be a wise move tomorrow since the wave count suggests a big sharp decline coming soon.

Euro is bouncing along with stocks, once complete it should fall sharply as well.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

2 comments:

427Dave said...

Todd - I read that last week there were over 300 outside bearish reversals/engulfing bearish reversals. Sounds quite ominous.

PrincipleAnalysis_Blogspot_Com said...

Wow! That would be quite amazing.

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