I'm short on time today and can't do a full post, but I wanted to say that it looks like a top is in and a major selling phase is underway, i.e. wave (iii) down is just getting started. To recap from last week, I was looking for a decline Friday and/or today which would be either corrective or a resumption of the larger downtrend, depending on its strength and structure. I said I'd probably need to see Friday's and Monday's action to get a better idea of which of the two options it was. Well today's action and internals suggest that the downtrend has resumed, putting my top count way up front, suggesting that wave (iii) down is now getting underway (see prior post below for chart and details). Keep in mind that oftentimes when I make bold predictions like this the market likes to make a fool out of me and move in the opposite direction hundreds of points. So as always, I'll be managing risk appropriately.
The euro is in the same boat as stocks and appears to have topped and is heading lower as well. Last week I said the euro's bearish outlook was a big reason why I liked the bearish stock count since stocks often follow the euro, and today we can see why I put so much emphasis on the euro. Look for the euro to continue lower, with bumps along the way.
Hopefully I can get a full post in tomorrow.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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3 comments:
I'm still looking for a final push up to over 1300+, maybe even 1330s. See my comments from 12/6. But really I do not see the kind of volume or other trade action indicators a wave 3 should be displaying. I will concede this is a wave 3 down kicking off only should 1190-1197 be broken decisively to the downside.I expect to see a bottom around 1220 and maybe as low as 1212. It's all good, you are still one of the best blogs i have read!
With the sluggish action combined with light volume I still think your outlook is still quite possible. I don't expect volume to hit the market again until the first week of January, but who knows. And as long as the series of lower highs remains intact on the intraday charts, the trend is down and I'll be positioned accordingly. The big "X-factor" right now for stocks is the euro. That thing is trading horribly and continues to look very bearish, which in my view, is telling for stocks moving forward. We'll see what happens Perthx, it's all about probabilities anyway :-)
Well so far so good, we hit my targeted low range of 1220-1212 at 1219 today(Tues). While I would love to see 1212 or even a tad lower, I am on high alert to go long tomorrow(?)for the run up toward 1300-1330 over the next few weeks give or take, but with a watchful eye should your wave 3 play out and my longs need to be dumped.
Yeah, the Euro could be key!!
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