The S&P continues to float higher, but nothing changes from the previous forcast. There are numerous internal divergences to price occurring, along with momentum divergences like the RSI as seen above. Volume remains very light as well. There is really nothing behind this rally at all in my opinion. Those types of rallies usually end with a big reversal, so be aware in the coming days. With the evidence at had, it seems clear to me that this move is part of a correction, and probably the final stages of a correction. The bears are lying low and waiting for a good opportunity to strike. Meanwhile, the few people in the market are able to float it higher. Look for a sharp reversal at any moment, that will bring a good shorting opportunity in my opinion. I will get short as soon as I can and place my stop just above the top of that reversal.
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The euro has managed to get of the matt a bit here and push a little over 100 pips higher from its low. But you can see that after the initial push to 1.2780, the rally has lost steam and moved choppy and almost sideways. Today the rally appears to be faltering and is trading right at the top of that initial surge at 1.2780. A solid break below that level will be the first sign the rally MIGHT be at an end. A sustained break below 1.2720 would most likely signal another major top is in. But I'm not waiting for that. I'm already adding short right now, and if it rallies higher then I'll short some more. Nothing about the euro's charts or the overall European and US economies suggest a euro bottom (US dollar top) is in place. So I'm focused on the short side big time right now.
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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS JUST AN ANALYSIS BLOG AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. THE DATA HERE IS MERELY AN EXPRESSED OPINION. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.
7 comments:
I would differ a bit in that at least a temporary top in the USD (via /DX) has occurred. I like to trade the /DX gaps and have done well by it. Here is my latest /DX gap chart http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usd01101260mGapChart.png That big lower gap is the only valid remaining open one. Higher up is a tiny one but I place no credence in that one. If the wave 2 up should be a deep one it could get filled. 81.63 - ~81.65 is the range. Currently short E/U for this expected rise but plan to flip long for the lower gap fill.
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If one is bullish the dollar, what if that gap you illustrate is serving as a "gap of recognition" for a sustained move higher? In that case, any retracement would hold the ascending yellow trendline on your chart.
It's hard to disagree too strongly with you since it's hard to develop a high confiidence wave count for the dollar and euro at this point. But the series of higher highs and higher lows in the dollar define the uptrend and I'm sticking with that for now. Today's strength suggests another dollar bottom is in, in my opinion. But we'll see.
Time to sit back and see which way it goes. Updated /DX charts;
Showing rise and topping wedge - http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usd01111260mGapChart.png
And the fall out of the topping wedge inset of a EUR/USD chart:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/usd01111260maGapChart.png
Small possibility that the rise is not over and a small blow-over of the large wedge could occur. I hope not, went long E/U with stop below $1.2660.
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Sure, you got it!
Thanks! Good luck to you.
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